Incredibly Stupid or an Act of Genius? - The Very Wet Announcement of the UK 2024 General Election
31.05.2024
By Kathleen Starck
Not before November.
That’s when most observers had expected the General Election to be held. Certainly, the governing party should either be leading in the polls or at least have something to show for their governing efforts at the time of the announcement. In the autumn inflation would have been down for a while, there might have been interest rates cuts, real wages might have risen and maybe a plane might have taken off to take refugees to Ruanda under a much-contested new law, thus proving the government is, indeed, doing something to “stop the boats” coming across from France.
So, most commentators reacted with surprise or shock when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on 22 May announced the General Election for 4 July 2024. CNN called the announcement Sunak’s “biggest gamble of his troubled premiership” and occurring at ”the least bad time” for him. The PM simply could not expect there ever to be a “Goldilocks moment” (“Political Fourcast”). Verdicts over the timing range from endgame to masterplan.
Many of the comments focused on why now, why so sudden, why on American Independence Day and that Sunak gave no reason whatsoever for the timing. Some concluded that Sunak wants to leave office, the sooner the better, so he will not have to endure complaints about his party’s inefficiency, infighting and chaos and Labour’s 20-point lead in the polls anymore. Some ask how he could have gotten it so wrong. Others have speculated that Sunak wants to move his family back to the US in time for school terms for his daughters. Still others focused on the question of why he made the announcement in the pouring rain and refused to either wear a coat or to have somebody hold an umbrella over him and why somebody was allowed to loudly play “It can only get better” over loudspeakers, basically drowning out the announcement. This is the song famously used by Labour to celebrate Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997.
We might never know the answers to these questions. What is certain, though, is that the campaigns kicked off immediately. Thus, Sunak has pledged to reintroduce mandatory National Service (army or community service) for 18-year-olds and announced tax cuts for pensioners, while Labour leader Keir Starmer promised to “stop the chaos” and “rebuild Britain”.
Overall, as CNN proposes, the main issues dominating the campaigns will be the cost of living crisis and NHS (National Health Service) waiting lists for Labour on the one hand. On the other hand, Conservatives are likely to concentrate on the economy, immigration and “Stop the Boats”. For anyone interested in British politics, there are six exciting weeks ahead of us.
Rishi Sunak’s announcement of the Elections
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hY6Z36ejPmU
CNN on Election Announcement
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/23/uk/uk-election-explainer-sunak-starmer-gbr-intl/index.html
The Independent on the song that drowned out Sunak’s election announcement
“Sunak pledges to bring back National Service”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XZgE0ZYDU4
‘I’m genuinely baffled’ - Andrew Neil on Sunak’s summer election gamble | SpectatorTV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKiSZ6roXg
Keir Starmer reacting to election announcement:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeJkAY2WlIo
Election Reporting by the Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/uk-general-election-2024
Election Coverage and Guide by the BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/crggn4j2lm0t
The Guardian on the “Key Battlegrounds” in the election
Opinion Poll Tracker (on political parties) by The Guardian
See also the latest opinion poll from 23 May 24 by Statista on what the Britain public consider to be the most important issues in this election.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/886366/issues-facing-britain/
Channel 4 Talk Show “The Political Fourcast”, discussing reactions to announcement:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT0wp6RhPog
LBC Radio, call-in-show on the announcement