A Turning Point in Indian Politics?

By Farha Noor

10 June 2024

Almost a billion eligible voters in India participated in a historic six-week-long voting process that concluded with the Lok Sabha (House of People) election results on 4th June 2024. But perhaps it is misleading to use the word “concluded”; the results have, in fact, triggered countless debates about the turn of Indian politics. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his party the BJP, and its allies, NDA (National Democratic Alliance) faced a powerful opposition in the rival alliance INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). INDIA was founded in 2023 as a coalition between the major opposition party, the Indian National Congress and several significant parties across the states. The BJP’s inevitable win undoubtedly rings in Modi’s third term, but it also brings substantial questions to the table as his party faces unexpected losses compared to the landslide victory of 2019. The BJP-led NDA alliance secured the 272 seats required for a majority, in a total of 543 seats, but fell short of the anticipated 400 seats-supra-majority that was claimed in exit polls. In an astonishing turnout, the BJP suffered severe losses, particularly in the constituency of Faizabad/Ayodhya in the ultra-populous state of Uttar Pradesh. Earlier this year, the government established a Hindu temple in Ayodhya at the site of a demolished 16th-century mosque. This definitive and divisive resolution to a long-drawn and violent controversy, the BJP had presumed, would seal its seat in the northern heartland.

Narendra Modi enjoys a cult persona amongst a huge section of voters, projecting the populist image of a tea-seller’s son turned demigod. Not only did his image and policies successfully target the ordinary people, but his visions for India as a leader in global politics have also been harnessed towards his heroic image. While this aura was uncritically eased by western nations to a great extent, it was enormously (and financially) supported by the Indian diaspora living in the West.  However, as the results show, at home, the magic of Modi seems to wane as the BJP loses in populous constituencies and agricultural bases like Punjab and Rajasthan that have witnessed unrest amongst farmers. It also failed to make inroads in important southern states like Tamil Nadu. The state of Uttar Pradesh remains the bellwether and a game-changer. What do these trends indicate? What worked for the BJP, what didn’t? Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi thanked voters, especially in UP, for their unfailing response in choosing to protect the Constitution.

Apart from rife unemployment, curbing of free speech and the pursuit of divisive policies like the Citizenship Amendment Act, one major fear surrounding Modi’s ‘Hindu India’ regime has been the possibility of revising the Constitution of India. An extensive document that provided the framework for the nation after it won independence from British colonial rule in 1947, the Constitution was adopted by the Indian people in 1949. It lays down the basis of law and fundamental rights of citizens. It defines India – home to an incredibly diverse population – as a sovereign, socialist, secular, and democratic republic. The last decade under Narendra Modi’s rule witnessed an unprecedented rise in communal and constitutional violence against minorities, Muslims, Christians, Dalits, and people from oppressed castes. The economically marginalised classes and ecologically vulnerable people have suffered long under fundamentalist financial policies. Intellectuals, activists and journalists arrested under unscrupulous charges of sedition remain incarcerated. As Modi celebrates this win with the promise of forming government, Indian voters seem to express a resounding desire for change. The BJP’s setbacks indicate a victorious war in an unfinished battle. The indications could not be more evident despite persistent allegations of media corruption, malfunctioning voting machines, and tempered voter lists, to cite a few concerns with the largest democratic process in the world.

Links:

The Telegraph Online: https://www.telegraphindia.com/elections/lok-sabha-election-2024/lok-sabha-election-results-pms-400-paar-vanity-shredded-an-inspired-opposition-elected-in-numbers/cid/2024693 

Al-Jazeera’s analysis of the election results https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/4/modis-bjp-loses-majority-in-india-election-shock-needs-allies-for 

BBC report https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0vv93pz14zo 

Interview with Prof. Christophe Jaffrelot https://www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/en/content/narendra-modi-man-who-manages-be-exactly-what-everyone-wants?sfnsn=scwspwa 

Decoding the 2024 elections (Indian independent media collaboration) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdsypz3qi7A&t=22s 

Election Report, Indian Express. https://indianexpress.com/elections/ 

Interview with Prof. Alpa Shah https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfp-XXjYGwQ&t=1918s 

Financial implications of Indian elections https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/06/04/indias-richest-lose-billions-as-hopes-fall-for-a-modi-landslide/ 

Amnesty International Report on Citizenship Amendment Act https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/03/india-citizenship-amendment-act-is-a-blow-to-indian-constitutional-values-and-international-standards/ 

The Guardian on Ayodhya Temple https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/15/divine-moment-or-political-gimmick-india-gears-up-to-inaugurate-huge-hindu-temple